January 6, 2009
A NASA-funded study describes how extreme solar eruptions could have severe consequences for communications, power grids, and other technology on Earth.
The National Academy of Sciences in Washington conducted the study. The resulting report provides some of the first clear economic data that effectively quantifies today's risk of extreme conditions in space driven by magnetic activity on the Sun and disturbances in the near-Earth environment. Instances of extreme space weather are rare and are categorized with other natural hazards that have a low frequency but high consequences.
"Obviously, the Sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the Sun's activity."
Besides emitting a continuous stream of plasma called the solar wind, the Sun periodically releases billions of tons of matter called coronal mass ejections. These immense clouds of material, when directed toward Earth, can cause large magnetic storms in the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Such space weather can affect the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems.
Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing widespread blackouts, and affecting communication cables that support the Internet. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of Earth's radiation belts that can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning, and weather forecasting. Space weather has caused problems with new technology since the invention of the telegraph in the 19th century.
A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure, and developing advanced forecasting capabilities. Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future.
NASA requested the study to assess the potential damage from significant space weather during the next 20 years. National and international experts from industry, government, and academia participated in the study. The report documents the possibility of a space weather event that has societal effects and causes damage similar to natural disasters on Earth.
"From a public policy perspective, it is quite significant that we have begun the extremely challenging task of assessing space-weather impacts in a quantitative way," said Daniel Baker, professor and director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.
"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," said Baker. "We were delighted that NASA helped support bringing together dozens of world experts from industry and government to share their experiences and begin planning of improved public policy strategies."
The Sun is currently near the minimum of its 11-year activity cycle. It is expected that solar storms will increase in frequency and intensity toward the next solar maximum, expected to occur around 2012.