The first incident occurred in March, when three Russian cosmonauts emerged from their capsule in yellow and blue flight suits that were similar in color to the Ukrainian flag. Despite the resemblance, Russian officials never spoke about the coincidence. Then, on July 7, 2022, NASA publicly criticized Russia for apparently staging a propaganda photo. In the photo, the three Russian cosmonauts pose with flags associated with regions in eastern Ukraine occupied by Russian forces.
There have been no disruptions to the operation of the station itself. Astronauts on the station continue to perform dozens of experiments every day, as well as carrying out joint spacewalks. But one substantial effect of the increasing tensions was the end of Russian participation in joint experiments with European nations aboard the ISS.
With little information available about how Russia’s withdrawal will affect the use of its modules, in the short term, it seems likely that the largest effects will be on scientific experiments.
Why now?
It’s unclear why Russia made this announcement now.
Tensions surrounding the ISS have been high since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. At the time, Dmitry Rogozin, then head of Roscosmos, insinuated that Russia’s leaving the ISS might be a possibility. However, Rogozin was recently fired, and NASA and Roscosmos announced a seat swap for the ISS. Under this deal, an American astronaut would launch to the station on a future Soyuz mission while a cosmonaut would launch on an upcoming SpaceX Dragon launch. The two moves together suggested that the two sides might still be able to find ways to work together in space. But it seems those impressions were misleading.
The announcement also comes as the U.S. is considering the future beyond the ISS. NASA is currently in the first phase of development of a commercial space station as a replacement for the orbiting lab. While accelerating the development of this new space station would be difficult, it does signal that the ISS is nearing the end of its productive and inspirational life, no matter what Russia does.
Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air University
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